by Chris Campbell
On Nov 5, 2015
Chris Campbell notifies you on the digital currency that you should avoid and it might surprise you. Hint: it isn’t Bitcoin. Read more…
by Chris Campbell
On Aug 27, 2015
Nathanael Greene returns to talk about the dark side of the Currency Wars “they” don’t want you to know…
“Though a society can resist epidemics of physical disease, it is defenseless against diseases of the mind. Against ‘psychic epidemics’ our laws and medicines and great factories and fortunes are virtually helpless.”
– Carl Jung
“The ideas of economists and political philosophers,” John Maynard Keynes wrote in The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, “both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood.
“Indeed,” Keynes goes on, “the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”
In our age of rampant funny munny tomfoolery…
That quote by the King of the Inflationistas himself has more layers than we can possibly peel back in today’s missive.
But let’s zoom in on Keyne’s first two words… “the ideas”.
“People don’t have ideas,” said the late psychologist Carl Jung, “ideas have people.”
Perhaps we suffer from the dreaded “curse of knowledge,” but nowhere is this concept — of bad ideas infecting otherwise rational people — more prolific than in the waffling, prostrated field of economics.
In his book The Price of Tomorrow, Jeff Booth argues that our current economic systems are built on bad ideas about money, deflation, and technology.
More specifically, he says, our systems were built for the Bronze Age…
Back when labor and capital were linked.
Back when the economy counted entirely on growth and inflation.
Back when we made the most money from inefficiency.
“That era,” he says, “is over.”
Today, we’re on the edge of a Space Age era…
And with bad ideas the only things holding us back.
What truly drives the world economy today? Not innovation. Not ingenuity. Not hard work. Not good ideas. Not a love for the grind.
What truly drives the world economy? Easy credit and, with it, debt.
To move forward, Booth says, we need to become more comfortable with the very idea which repulses central banks, supranational organizations, and governments: deflation.
Technology, he says, is inherently deflationary.
With the incredible lever of technology, we should be seeing lower and lower costs, and higher levels of abundance for the greatest number of people…
“And why we’re not,” Booth says in a (pretty good) Real Vision interview, “is because central governments and monetary stimulus around the world are trying to prevent that.”
It’s About Time
Digging deeper into the bad ideas which run (and ruin) good people…
We must also understand the only truly limited resource in our tech-driven world: time.
Everything on earth can be made, bought, created, recycled, transmuted, and more.
Except, of course, for time.
The average lifespan is around 600,000 hours. It has an end. And you can’t stop it from pummeling forward.
Intuitively, we understand this.
In the infosphere, everyone is fighting for the same thing: attention.
They fight for your time.
When you work, you exchange time for money.
(And yet, the money you save and use loses value over time.)
Time, says our own in-house futurist George Gilder, is everything.
And, fortunately, says Gilder, despite all of the chaos we are surrounded with these days…
Time is (still) on our side.
And that, we posit, is one idea worthy of an epidemic.
In today’s episode, therefore, we invite Gilder to introduce the true antidote to funny munny tomfoolery…
Check it out below.
Time Is on Our Side
By George Gilder
What are we afraid of?
In recent weeks, I have been traveling around the globe and observing the rapid emptying of airports. Does this mean that most people are in a panic over a new form of highly infectious flu?
It called to mind my studies long ago with the great economist and game theorist Thomas Schelling, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2005 mostly for his theories of “micromotives and macrobehavior.”
His book by that title showed that such phenomena as empty airports or traffic-jammed freeways or even segregated communities could reflect only the slightest changes in attitude. Small changes in people’s minds, oriented in the same direction, can effect massive changes in people’s collective behavior.
“Though a society can resist epidemics of physical disease,” as I paraphrase philosopher-psychologist Carl Jung in Wealth & Poverty, “it is defenseless against diseases of the mind. Against ‘psychic epidemics’ our laws and medicines and great factories and fortunes are virtually helpless.”
Many of us certainly feel helpless these days, locked down by the ridiculous and unnecessary order of politicians. With the world wilting before our eyes, we will have to wait ‘till doomsday for the politicians and media pundits to admit the egregious mistake of quarantining the healthy in order to protect the frail from at most a marginal 0.5% global rise in current historically low rates of mortality.
Oh well, life limps on…
But in response to these depressing times, my friend and tireless blogger John Mauldin quotes Thomas Babington Macaulay, writing in 1830 in reply to pessimists of his day:
“We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who tell us that society has reached a turning point — that we have seen our best days. But so said all who came before us, and with just as much apparent reason… On what principle is it that, when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?’’
Good question, John.
Mauldin also cites the theory of time-prices, which demonstrates that the world is getting richer all the time because it takes less and less hours of work to obtain more and more goods.
John quotes from a famous essay by Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus of Yale. He got his Nobel in 2018 for a pandering poison ivy paper on climate change and carbon taxes. But in 1993, before his Nobel mistake, he made a true breakthrough. In a paper titled, “Do Real Income and real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Lighting Suggests Not.”
“Real world GDP, after inflation, is up over 15X since [Macaulay] wrote that. The cost of a candle in 1800 that would let you read, however dimly, for one hour, was six hours of labor. Today that same amount of light costs about 3/10 of a second of human labor.”
Real GDP up a mere fifteen fold. Or measured by time-prices — the number of hours and minutes a person has to work to earn the money to buy goods and services — real output is up some 72,000 times.
John says it’s a transformation: “The current crisis won’t slow down the Age of Transformation. The crisis usually has the potential, if not the probable likelihood, to actually accelerate transformation.”
John continues: “As my dad used to say, ‘Necessity is the mother of invention.’ Or innovation.”
Your Dad was right. The current insanity will pass and will be followed by a stream of law suits. Then the innovations will begin to crowd in.
In order to anticipate the innovations, I recommend, sight unseen, the new book, Innovation, by Matt Ridley coming out any day now.
Apart from his world-leading critiques of climate change angst, his two previous books, The Rational Optimist and The Evolution of Everything were both masterpieces of economic history and analysis.
Ridley has long been on to time-prices. But as the readers of my prophecies know the current virtuosos of time-price data are economists Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley, who demonstrate that Nordhaus’s insight on the cost of lighting can be duplicated across the entire range of new technologies.
Time-prices show that real economic growth is several-fold faster than economists measure with their Consumer Price Indices, Purchasing Power Parities, Hedonic adjustments, and other federal deflators.
This means that real interest rates, adjusted for time-price gains, are normal rather than near zero as our debauched monetary indices depict.
This means that after the politicians end their destructive siege of economic self-abuse in the name of increased power for politicians and humiliation of the public, we will return to the rates of economic growth usual under capitalist freedom.
That’s why over the next decade or so we will have self-driving trucks (first driven from home as a new Swedish invention enables!) and then self-driving cars and self-driving planes. We will have giant integrated circuits on wafers that perform machine learning in seconds.
We will have Strategic Investment Conferences in virtual reality zoom. And maybe we will have real life encounters again, as we escape Agora founder Bill Bonner’s wandering regime of life lived between six feet apart and six feet under.
What we won’t have, I will prophesy, is a world beyond carbon. In order to achieve real artificial intelligence, we will enter a new carbon economy consisting of carbon-based chips.
Escaping the ugly self-inflated fiasco of COVID-19, we will not close down the economy again for a fake crisis of climate. Greta Thunberg as Time’s person of the year in 2020 will signify the last great triumph of the climate cranks and weather bores.
We are in a pit today, but as Macaulay points out, we have been in such pits for most of human history and we will soon escape.
Until then there are books to read and investments to contemplate in a world of transformation measured by time-prices still accelerating progress and, as Pooley shows, declining inequality everywhere.
Time is on our side.
for Laissez Faire Today