Goldman Sachs Predicts Trump Win

  • Goldman Sachs Predicts Trump Win
  • Tax Refunds Are Down… But These Loopholes Could Change Everything
  • The IRS Reveal Multimillionaires’ Secret to Success
  • Roof and spire of Notre Dame Cathedral collapse in fire

15 out of 19 U.S. Presidents Would Agree

Goldman Sachs has reached into its golden sack and pulled out the old crystal ball for yet another round of election predictions.

According to its 2019 economic forecast report, President Trump is already in the lead, thanks to two major advantages he holds over his Dem rivals:

  • Great hair
  • And modesty

Nah, I’m kidding. But seriously:

“The advantage of first term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him.”

A proud history of seat warmers

Incumbent presidents win elections.

Well, most of them do anyway. (Sorry, Jimmy C. and George Sr.)

jimmy carter

Jimmy’s mouth said “Change We Need” but his eyes said, “I’d rather be on my peanut farm.”

Of the 19 U.S. presidents who have sought reelection, only five have been forced to give up their office.

Going up against a sitting president is like trying to sit in a seat someone is already sitting in. (Literally as well as metaphorically.)

Incumbent presidents have several built-in advantages:

  1. Name recognition (Trump is the most Googled name in the world)
  2. National attention (Trump can make national news with a 280-character tweet)
  3. Voters’ inertia (voters are more likely to vote for the incumbent if they voted for him before)
  4. Successful campaign experience (check)
  5. Established fundraising and campaign bases (check)
  6. $$$ (check-a-roony)

Goldman Sachs acknowledges in its report that the president’s less-than-50% approval rating might offset some of the benefits of this factor — but not totally.

Trumpenomics

One of the best predictors of an election is economic performance.

Sure, you might disagree with everything the president says or does. But if your pockets are nice and fat, there’s no need to go upsetting the apple cart over a couple of tweets (or a couple of hundred tweets).

Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax-cut package is credited with boosting wage gains and reducing unemployment to record lows.

However, the strongest indicator of who will win the election is the economic performance specifically in Q2 of the election year.

How will the economy look then? Well, let’s crank up the old crystal ball and see what’s going on in Q2 of 2020:

  • Elon Musk sends a dog to space, upsets SEC with a tweet about anime.
  • Kanye announces his candidacy for President, runs as an independent.
  • Goldman Sachs predicts the economy will grow 2.3% in 2020 and employment and wages will continue to rise, which would look good for a Trump win.
  • But there are still unresolved variables that will have a big influence on those numbers — such as the Chinese trade deal and the movement of major Trump players into the Fed.

Goldman Sachs might have its fancy economists but I want to hear from you.

Do you think Trump has it sewn up with incumbent advantage?

What Dem players do you see as the biggest threat to his candidacy?

Will I be miserable writing about this election for the next two years?

Click here to email me your predictions.

Tax Refunds Are Down… But These Loopholes Could Change Everything

Tax Day is upon us!

For many folks, this will be the first time feeling the effects of President Trump’s massive tax reform. (Feel free to use that line in your low-budget Trump porn parody.)

And there’s some good news and bad news for the president’s reelection campaign. On the whole, folks paid fewer taxes overall this year. The problem is, most of them don’t realize it.

Simpsons tweet

Dude, Where’s My Refund?

According to early reports, the number of refunds is down by about a million people this year. (That’s a lot of dads not getting their new lawnmowers.)

Not only are refunds down, but the number of people who ended up owing the federal government money shot up.

This is mainly due to a mismatch between the old and new tax regulations. If you didn’t refile your taxes with your H.R. department last year, there’s a good chance you got hit with a bill. (Some of us think H.R. probably should have mentioned something, JANET.)

On average these folks ended up paying less tax overall. But nobody likes owing the government money. (Except maybe the Finnish. They love paying taxes.)

And if folks don’t edit their withholdings now, they are going to owe even more next year. The new regulations were only active for nine months out of twelve last year. This year, we’re going twelve for twelve.

Trump’s Perception Problem

This highlights the biggest problem with the new tax program (for Trump’s reelection).

While most folks are actually paying less taxes, they don’t even realize it.

According to a study conducted by Survey Monkey, most people are getting tax cuts. But almost half of those who are getting cuts don’t know it.

Per the study, 69.1% of workers earning between $30k and $50k received a tax cut. But only 36.1% actually realized it. The same is true all the way up the income ladder.

$50k–75k: 81.7% received a cut. 41.5% realized it.

$75k–100k: 86.6% received a cut. 47.9% realized it.

$100k plus: 89.5% received a cut. 46.4% realized it.

How can people not realize they got a tax cut?

Isn’t that a little like not noticing you got a haircut?

Well, for most folks, the cuts came in the form of a little bit of extra money every month. For some, it might be small enough that they simply didn’t notice.

And then, if they didn’t update their returns they could have been hit with a big old tax bill this month, which makes it feel like you lost money (even if your overall tax burden was lower).

Good old George W. figured out the solution to this problem when he introduced his tax cut. Instead of it being added to your paycheck, he mailed you out a big check at the end of the year.

Who’s not going to vote for a guy that sends you big checks in the mail?

Game of Taxes

Of course, if you’re one of the hardworking middle-class, the money you saved from your tax cut is nothing compared to what Congress got off with this tax season.

Paul Ryan tweet

Is Paul Ryan desperately out of touch or just an idiot?

According to Robert Kiyosaki, who wrote two books on finance with President Trump, the system is rigged against the little guy:

Think about it…

Rich congressmen draft the tax code.

The same rich congressmen who get MASSIVE political contributions from other rich people.

In exchange for writing in tax benefits to make them money!

Of course, rich people hate paying taxes. So what do these rich congressmen do?

They write in a bunch of loopholes they can take advantage of!

Robert says that no one person has a chance of finding all these loopholes inside a tax code that runs 6,550 pages long.

That’s why he hires a team of tax experts to help him — including an accountant President Trump called “the best of the best.”

In total, Robert’s team discovered 91 obscure loopholes, including:

  • A “paycheck loophole” that could boost your bottom line by $13,300 or more.
  • How to use Section 933 and legally pay zero in federal income tax.
  • The one-time move to “upgrade” your retirement account and “erase” up to $55,000 in taxable income.

For the first time ever, he’s making these secrets available in a special document, his Rich Dad 2019 Tax Guide.

Click here to grab your free copy now. Don’t delay. Today’s your last chance to get hands on a copy.

BREAKING: As we go to print, a huge fire rips through the Notre Dame Cathedral. The Spire and roof of the cathedral have collapsed. 400 firefighters are on the scene and working to save the artifacts inside.

smoke and fire

 

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ONE LAST THING

The IRS Reveal Multimillionaires’ Secret to Success

According to the IRS, there’s one thing most multimillionaires have in common (besides divorce and ice sculptures).

In 2018, your average multimillionaire had seven different sources of income.

At first glance, you might wonder how someone could do seven different jobs at once (I can barely do one).

But according to our team’s income expert James Altucher, most of these incomes aren’t traditional jobs like you and I would think of them.

They’re what James (and the young folk on Twitter) call side hustles:

“A side hustle is not a job,” says James. “A side hustle is a business you run in your free time that allows you the flexibility to pursue what you’re most interested in. It’s your 5-to-9 after your 9-to-5, so to speak. It’s a chance to delve into food, travel, fashion, fitness or whatever you’re passionate about while keeping your day job.

“If you’re creative, you can get started with $0 and launch risk-free. You get orders and buyers before you spend a cent… and you can get started today using just a few hours a week.”

James has been writing about side hustles for years. In fact, one of his reader’s, Trevor Chapman, was able to take what he learned from James and turn it into a million-dollar fortune.

Trevor used to work grueling hours to support his family of five. But then he stumbled on an eight-page document, a side hustle blueprint James shared with a handful of his readers…

Using what he learned and $200 out of his pocket, Trevor created a million-dollar fortune over the next 90 days.

And then he retired.

Today Trevor lives the life he once thought was only for the 1%. And the side hustle was so simple, he taught his mother how to do it.

Using nothing more than her spare time, it took her just 10 days to hit what she calls her “freedom number,” the amount of daily income she needed to never work another job or worry about money again.

Click here to claim your free copy of James’s Side Hustle Bible and he’ll show you how anyone can use a side hustle to earn passive paychecks for the rest of their life.

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MARKET MOVEMENTS

Closing Data for 4/12/19

DJIA
$26,412.30
↑ 1.03%

 

S&P Index 500
$2,907.41
↑ 0.66%

 

NASDAQ
$7,628.15
↑ 0.44%

 

Gold
$1,290.60
↑ 0.16%

 

Silver
$14.96
↑ 2.65%

 

Bitcoin
$5,114.00
↑ 0.95%

 

  • Goldman Sachs (GS) falls 3.2%, Citigroup (C) 0.9% after missing revenue estimates.
  • Consumers hold a bearish outlook on the U.S. economy in April, survey suggests. American households begin to feel the impact of tax cuts.
  • After 11 years with no championship wins, Tiger Woods claims his fifth Master’s title. This isn’t news from the market… But who doesn’t love a good comeback story?

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READER COMMENTS

Click here to send us your comments and tell us what you think. Do you agree with us? Do you think our ideas are stupid? Bring it on. We can take it.

Yesterday, I put the question to you: The president’s space force — dumb or drastic measure? Here’s what you said:There is ALREADY a USAF astronaut program. Trump’s idea to create another separate force is a really, really bad idea. You thought the Army/Navy relationship was problematic… wait till you see the mess this will create between the Space Force and the Air Force. — Jeffrey Seeman

Space force is an absolute necessity if we’re going to defend ourselves or any ally or third country from the advent of a Russia or China invasion, both steps ahead of us already! — Bruce S.

Stupid idea. Let the Air Force pick up the slack there. At best they’d need to reactivate the old Strategic Air Command (SAC) with a new mission to control the space arena. — Paul M

My big ‘wonder’ is for in the long run will we be fighting Monkeys that are far more agile, and with a thinking brain, might they develop newer abilities that exceed man’s! This is a country that follows no rules and have free range of experimentation. YEAH, this will be a problem. It WILL cause problems with animal groups in this country not to mention the politically left that will proclaim Monkey-men will have ‘HUMAN’ rights, another prospective problem. — Cyberfax!–

 


Planet of the apes

Cheers,

Shane Ormond
Editor, One Last Thing

Chris Campbell

Written By Shane Ormond

Shane Ormond is the managing editor for One Last Thing. In a previous life, he wrote and edited copy for International Living in Waterford, Ireland.