A Better Way to Define “Bear Market”

On Friday, we looked at AMZN and highlighted upcoming support that must hold, or else the stock could be headed for bear market territory.

Today, we’re going to take at Apple, Inc. (AAPL), which is officially in bear market territory — at least by popular definition.

Let’s once again look at the definition of a bear market, as per Investopedia.com:

“Individual securities or commodities can also be considered to be in a bear market if they experience a decline of 20% or more over a sustained period of time — typically two months or more…”

Now, let’s do the math on AAPL according to those rules. AAPL’s 52-week high — seen just a few weeks ago — is $137.82. If we take 20% off that number, we get an official bear market level for AAPL of $110.25.

But really, does AAPL look like it’s in a bear market? Let’s check the daily chart and see:

Chart

While AAPL has had a 20% decline since hitting its highs, it’s still holding the trendline that started back in April.

Even if the trendline breaks, there’s a decent distance until it gets to the 200-day moving average.

The traditional definition is fine if you want to slap a label on, but it’s always good to check the charts to see the true story.

Trade Smart,

Michael Saul
Analyst, Chart of the Day

Chuck Hughes

Written By Chuck Hughes

Before Chuck Hughes won 10 Trading Championships, he was an accomplished Air Force pilot. In fact, he credits his success as a stock and options trader to his disciplined upbringing and career. When he was deciding between a career in the Navy and a career in the Air Force, the Navy told him he’d only have a 33% chance of flying jets. The Air Force gave him 100%. He liked those odds better. 35 years ago, Chuck had a wife, a young daughter, a son on the way, and a huge mortgage to afford. He didn’t want to give up on his lifelong dream and stop flying for a major commercial airline. He knew he needed to supplement his income during the 15 days a month he wasn’t flying. So he used his experience in discipline and math, and his understanding of finance and the stock markets (which he’d always been interested in,) and opened a $4,600 trading account. He made over $460,000 in profits his first two years of trading, and he hasn’t looked back since. When he was diagnosed with Meniere’s disease 15 years later, which commonly leads to vertigo…He knew his career as a pilot wouldn’t last much longer with those odds. But he didn’t have to scurry to find another gig, or panic about how his family would eat… He’d spent the last 15 years perfecting his system and raking in cash. As an options trader, Chuck does not let his emotions get in the way of his trading strategy. He adheres to disciplined and methodical options and stock trades. Because he respects the options game so highly, and understands the true freedom that financial solvency can bring, Chuck was able to design and refine his system and win those 10 Trading Championships. Put simply, Chuck Hughes’ trading strategies work, and in all types of market conditions. They’ve worked throughout the bull, bear, and flat markets America has seen in the last 30 years. Chuck Hughes has spent that time building a reputation as one of the most trustworthy options traders in the industry. His publishing group Legacy Publishing LLC was one of the few trading groups on the planet to have correctly predicted and profited from the 2008 financial crash .As a published author 16 times over, a 10-time Trading Championship winner, and an options-trading teacher for 25 years, he’s learned to trade and teach without an ego.