Laissez Faire Today

The Laissez Faire Club Daily e-Letter

Currencies of the Future

Many people complain about government control of currency, but only a few do something about it. I’m not talking about movements to “audit the Fed” and such. I’m talking about real innovation that makes an end run around the government’s iron grip on the monetary system.

A few of us old folks might like to return to the days of slapping a silver dollar on the bar for a shot of whiskey, but the younger techno-savvy generation sees paying for their Negroni cocktail with virtual currency from their hand-held device. To serve this market, a new world of virtual currencies has popped up spontaneously.

In a debate, Mitt Romney said, “You couldn’t have people opening up banks in their garage and making loans.”

Really? Some people are thinking precisely along these lines and even going further to create new units of accounting.
You might think these people are crazy. After all, to be a proper money, a currency must have a nonmonetary value, a high value per unit weight, a fairly stable supply and be divisible, durable, recognizable, and homogeneous. Gold and silver fit the bill perfectly. But does that mean something else (or a variety of things) can’t?

Money develops from being the most marketable good that in turn is used for indirect trade. Historically, that has been gold and silver. However, governments have worked very hard to demonetize gold and silver with taxes on precious metals and legal tender laws. And while a few people swear by storing their wealth in gold and silver, in relation to all other financial assets, the percentage of portfolios invested in precious metals is only 1%.

The idea that government is going to re-shackle its currency to gold anytime soon, when the only way federal governments are staying in business is with an unfettered printing press, is naive. Governments always have driven and will keep driving the value of their currencies to the value of the paper. It may take decades, it may take centuries, but it will happen eventually.

The answer to the currency question may not be to reform government in a way that it can’t reasonably be reformed, but to turn loose entrepreneurial genius to solve the problem and create a quality product. There are plenty of government roadblocks, but every new innovation encounters government resistance. Entrepreneurs persevere. However, this is a particularly risky area. There are currency entrepreneurs sitting in jail for competing with the government.

In 2009, Japanese programmer “Satoshi Nakamoto” (not his real name) was designing and implementing Bitcoin. It’s not for the faint of heart. It’s proven to be highly volatile. But it’s also proven to be very useful in a digital age.

Some people in the free-market community don’t know what to think of Bitcoin and have dismissed it. They say no currency can exist that doesn’t have a prior root in physical commodity.

That is because, as Robert Murphy summarized Ludwig von Mises: “We can trace the purchasing power of money back through time until we reach the point at which people first emerged from a state of barter. And at that point, the purchasing power of the money commodity can be explained in just the same way that the exchange value of any commodity is explained.”

The naysayers contend Bitcoins never had a nonmonetary commodity value. The case for it is then dismissed without thought or argument. However, Mises built his “regression theorem” on the work of Carl Menger, the father of Austrian economics and subjective value.

In Menger’s view, economizing individuals constantly look to make their lives better through trade. These individuals trade less tradable goods for more tradeable goods. What makes goods more tradeable, Menger emphasizes, is custom in a particular locale.

“But the actual performance of exchange operations of this kind presupposes a knowledge of their interest on the part of economizing individuals,” Menger writes. But Menger goes on to explain that not all individuals gain this knowledge all at once. A small number of people recognize the marketability of certain goods before most others.

These might be considered currency entrepreneurs. They anticipate consumer needs and demands, and as is the case with any other good or service, these entrepreneurs recognized more salable goods before the majority of people.

“Since there is no better way in which men can become enlightened about their economic interests than by observation of the economic success of those who employ the correct means of achieving their ends, it is evident that nothing favored the rise of money so much as the long-practiced and economically profitable acceptance of eminently saleable commodities in exchange for all others by the most discerning and most capable economizing individuals.”

For example, cattle were, at one time, the most saleable commodity and were thus considered money. Although cattle money sounds unwieldy, the Greeks and the Arabs were both on the cattle standard. This currency had four legs that could move itself, and grass was everywhere, so feeding it was inexpensive.

But then the division of labor led to the formation of cities, and the practicality of cattle money was over. Cattle were no longer marketable enough to be money. Cattle still had value, but, “They ceased to be the most saleable of commodities, the economic form of money, and finally ceased to be money at all,” Menger explains.

Then began the use of metals as money: Copper, brass and iron, and then silver and gold.

But Menger was quick to point out that various goods served as money in different locales.

“Thus money presents itself to us, in its special locally and temporally different forms, not as the result of an agreement, legislative compulsion, or mere chance, but as the natural product of differences in the economic situation of different peoples at the same time, or of the same people in different periods of their history.”

So while people contend that money must be this or must be that, or come from here, or evolve from there, Menger, the father of the Austrian school, seems to leave it up to the market. When a money becomes uneconomic to use, it loses its marketability and ceases to be money. Other marketable goods emerge as money. It’s happened throughout history and likely will continue, despite government wanting to freeze the world in place to its liking.

Which brings us back to Bitcoin, what the European Central Bank (ECB) calls in its latest report “the most successful — and probably most controversial — virtual currency scheme to date.”

Ironically, while some economists are pooh-poohing Bitcoin, the ECB devotes some of their lengthy report to the idea that the Austrian school of economics provides the theoretical roots for the virtual currency. The business cycle theory of Mises, Hayek and Bohm-Bawerk is explained in the report and Hayek’s Denationalisation of Money is mentioned.

The report writers indicate that Bitcoin supporters see the virtual currency as a starting point for ending central bank money monopolies. Like Austrians, they criticize the fractional-reserve banking system and see the scheme as inspired by the classic gold standard.

Bitcoins are already used on a global basis. They can be traded for all sorts of products, both material and virtual. Bitcoins are divisible to eight decimal places and thus can be used for any size or type of transaction.

Bitcoins are not pegged to any government currency and there is no central clearinghouse or monetary authority. Its exchange rate is determined by supply and demand through the several exchange platforms that operate in real time. Bitcoin is based on a decentralized peer-to-peer network. There are no financial institutions involved. Bitcoin’s users take care of these tasks themselves.

Additional Bitcoin supply can only be created by “miners” solving specific mathematical problems. There are somewhere around 10 million Bitcoins currently in existence, and more will be released until a total of 21 million have been created by the year 2140. According to Bitcoin’s creator (whomever he or she is), mining on Bitcoin provides incentives to be honest:

“If a greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than all the honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to defraud people by stealing back his payments, or by using it to generate new coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules, such rules that favour him with more new coins than everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his own wealth”.

The ECB’s report explains that Bitcoin supply is designed to grow in a predictable fashion. “The algorithms to be solved (i.e., the new blocks to be discovered) in order to receive newly created Bitcoins become more and more complex (more computing resources are needed).”

This steady supply increase is to avoid inflation (decrease in the value of Bitcoins) and business cycles caused when monetary authorities rapidly expand money supplies.

Bitcoin has become the currency of the online black market. For instance, The Silk Road (the Amazon of the illegal drug trade that can only be accessed through private networks using the IP scrambling service called Tor) only accepts payments in Bitcoin. However, as the ECB report points out, there are only about 10,000 Bitcoin users, and the market is illiquid and immature.

So why does the ECB give a damn about Bitcoin and other virtual currencies? The central bankers are worried that they are not regulated or closely supervised, that they could represent a challenge for public authorities and that they could have a negative impact on the reputation of central banks.

At the same time, the report makes the point that “these schemes can have positive aspects in terms of financial innovation and the provision of additional payment alternatives for consumers.”

The report says big players in the financial services arena are purchasing companies in the virtual payments space. VISA acquired PlaySpan Inc., a company with a payment platform that handles transactions for digital goods.

American Express (Amex) purchased Sometrics, a company “that helps video game makers establish virtual currencies and… plans to build a virtual currency platform in other industries, taking advantage of its merchant relationships.”

This would dovetail with American Express’ entry into the prepaid credit card business. Banking industry insiders are upset with Amex and Wal-Mart, that also is offering prepaid cards, because these prepaid accounts would amount to uninsured deposits, according to Andrew Kahr, who wrote a scathing piece on the issue for American Banker.

Kahr rips into the idea with this analogy:

“To provide even lower ‘discount prices,’ should Wal-Mart rent decaying buildings that don’t satisfy local fire laws and building codes — and offer still better deals to consumers? And why should Walmart have to honor the national minimum wage law, any more than Amex honors state banking statutes? With Bluebird, Amex can already violate both the Bank Holding Company Act and many state banking statues.”

Kahr is implying that regulated fractionalized banking is safe and sound, while prepaid cards provided by huge companies like Amex and Wal-Mart is a shady scheme set up to rip off consumers. The fact is, in the case of IndyMac, panicked customers forced regulators to close the S&L by withdrawing only 7% of the huge S&L’s deposits. It was about the same for WaMu and Wachovia when regulators engineered sales of those banks being run on. Bitcoin supporters, unlike the general public, are well aware of fractionalized banking’s fragility.

Maybe what the banking industry is really afraid of is the Amexes and Wal-Marts of the world creating their own currencies and banking systems. Wal-Mart has tried to get approval to open a bank for years, and bankers have successfully stopped the retail giant for competing with them.

However, prepaid credit cards might be just the first step toward Wal-Mart issuing their own currency — Marts — that might initially be used only for purchases in Wal-Mart stores. But over time, it’s not hard to imagine Marts being traded all over town and easily converted to dollars, pesos, Yuan, or other currencies traded where Wal-Mart has stores.

Governments are destroying their currencies, and businesses know it. Entrepreneurs won’t just stand by and theorize. They’re doing something. They recognize a market opportunity. The banking industry realizes it. As Mr. Kahr concluded his article that calls for an end to all uninsured deposits: “Otherwise, we might have an unregulated Facebook or Google of payments, even PayPal, quickly becoming both highly vulnerable and TBTF. (It could actually be run by someone wearing a hoodie, without tie or even white shirt!)”

Here at LFB, we don’t know what tomorrow’s money will be. Digits and computer algorithms? Silver and gold coins engraved with someone wearing a hoodie, perhaps? What we know for sure is that we’re rooting for enterprising entrepreneurs to give the government a run for their money in the money business. Watch this space.

Doug French

  • Pingback: Bitcoin Bible and I | elcidharth

  • Pingback: El Bitcoin o Bicön. La cripto-moneda que esta desafiando todos los controles monetarios a nivel mundial. | Region de ValMar

  • Pingback: Virtual currencies will explode thanks to mobile games | BANKNXT

  • Pingback: A jövő pénzei

  • Long John Dickweed

    One issue for me that comes up with Bitcoin, what is to stop some other anonymous programmer from creating a clone currency that operates in the exact same way? Let’s call it ByteCoin.

    Assume that ByteCoin operates on a separate but identical network system of users and that the initial distribution or “mining” of coins follows the same criteria. What does this do to the value of Bitcoins? Suppose another year later there are 40 similar fiat cryptocurrencies in operation. Would something so easily duplicatable really be a safe store of value?

    While Bitcoin might have a stable, predictable supply and no central issuing authority as a positive, it’s negatives are it’s easy to copy the idea (under a different name) and a lack of intrinsic value.

    Euro Pacific Bank has a gold-backed debit card where you essentially fund the card by purchasing gold with dollars, and as you make purchases, your gold is converted back to dollars (or euros, etc.) at the current exchange rate. You are basically putting yourself on the gold standard. Arrangements like this sound a lot better than bitcoin, plus the range of use if far greater.

    • http://profiles.google.com/miscreanity Ramon Pla

      First-mover advantage – it’s increasingly difficult for variants to build the momentum necessary to exceed Bitcoin’s share without offering a highly compelling feature not present in Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is now synonymous with cryptocurrency for the majority of people who discover the concept.

    • http://www.facebook.com/joel.kaartinen Joel Joonatan Kaartinen

      There already are clones of bitcoin. Some mere copies of the system, just with a separate database and others with varying amounts of technical and economical differences. None of them, however, can be considered to be competing with Bitcoin at this point.

      They have no significant advantages over Bitcoin and have the disadvantage of not having Bitcoin’s userbase and infrastructure. I expect things will stay this way unless Bitcoin grows too fast and hits some of it’s current implementation’s scalability issues before they have been solved.

      In short, the value of Bitcoin does not come from the system itself but rather from the network of people using the system. About that gold-backed debit card system, I’d just ask, what backs gold?

  • Pingback: ¿Qué habría dicho Carl Menger acerca de Bitcoin? | Bitcoin en Español

  • Pingback: Currencies of the Future | Laissez-Faire Bookstore - Let You Know Everything

  • http://twitter.com/producist Drew Little

    Great article!! I believe in order for alternative currencies to go mainstream, college students need to use them; the same way Facebook took social networking mainstream.

    That’s what our startup, Producia, is doing with our time-based, virtual currency “Fini.” We’re building the platform for the student economy and it will eventually spill over into the local community.

    You can learn more at http://producia.org

  • npcomplete

    Bitcoin actually meets the Regression Theorem.

    Currently
    the utility of bitcoin comes from providing an alternative medium of
    exchange that NO OTHER currency provides. This tool to exchange value
    itself becomes valuable as people gain more confidence in it and start
    storing it for future exchanges.

    Think of it like a hammer that
    is used to bust through various government sanctions. It’s a pretty
    unique hammer that people use to break through barriers of trade. Pretty
    soon that hammer itself becomes money.

    In a purely free society,
    bitcoin would probably not emerge as money. But in our current society,
    bitcoin is the aforementioned hammer, the tool currently primarily
    suited as currency (i.e. for exchange) that has monetary potential.

  • Pingback: Douglas French – Currencies of the Future |

  • Pingback: Austrian Economist and Former Mises Institute President Makes the Case for Innovation in Currencies | DGC

  • mcgravier

    Regression theorem says, that currency must emerge from something valuable. What is value? It’s representation of usefulnes, trust, potential of future profits, or capability to fulfill our need. Does it really must be “derivative”? A lot of modern inventions come from older technologies but not all of them. Currency is invention like every other. Bitcoin definitely bases on the same old idea of exchanging things but it’s structure is completely different from anything else before. Such phenomena must be very unusual for economists, but it is quite common for geeky mad scientists-inventors :)

    Regression theorm must be wrong also because large amount of people can spontaneously reach any beneficial consensus (like common currency) thanks to communication or just charismatic leader.

  • T. Ting

    Bitcoin has some issues, but I think that over the next decade or so there will be a variety of competing digital currencies, and probably several eventual winners that make different kinds of tradeoffs.

    • Rok

      Sorry, but can you be more specific what kind of issues it has?

      • http://twitter.com/btcgriffin bitcoin Lottery

        I think bitcoin blockchain size can stop it. It is now 3 G and growing how can we use bitcoin if it grow 2 T each month, and it will if transaction size as big as VISA.

        • BladeMcCool

          ultraprune on small internet connections and leave the full blockchain to the mining pools and big server guys (bitpay/paysius/walletbit/coinbase/blockchain.info).

        • http://www.facebook.com/joel.kaartinen Joel Joonatan Kaartinen

          The only thing the full blockchain with all it’s history is useful for is for independent checking that everything has been done according to the rules. Once you have done that, even once, you no longer really need all the history. There will soon be versions available that just don’t keep the history. Without the history, you could currently make do with around 150MB of data, even if you want to run a full node that verifies everything.

  • Pingback: Douglas French - Currencies of the Future - Unofficial Network

  • http://www.facebook.com/gabe.sukenik Gabe Sukenik

    Terrific piece, Mr French. Would love to see LFB or the Mises Institute begin to accept Bitcoins as payment, there are companies such as Paysius.com that will process Bitcoin payments and convert them to USD deposits. Would be happy to speak to you more about making this integration happen.

  • http://twitter.com/PeterSurda Peter Šurda

    A very nice twist, so far people associated with the Mises Institute have been either reluctant to comment on Bitcoin or vocally negative about it.

    I’ve been working on economic research of Bitcoin for about 1.5 years, including empirical analysis. Regarding the emergence of price (one of the conditions mentioned in the regression theorem), based on the available data, the first price was based on variable production costs. The manufacturers, who have already been competing at that time, estimated their variable production costs and used that as a basis for the price they asked. Since there already was competition at that time, that means they couldn’t have charged much more than their variable costs. On the other hand, on the demand side, the potential buyers probably concluded that they cannot produce Bitcoin cheaper themselves in the quantities they needed, and trade emerged. By the way, at that time one Bitcoin was about 1/1300th of a US dollar, and the total market price of all Bitcoins in existence was only about 930 US dollars.

    In fact, almost all the time the market price of Bitcoin is close to the marginal production cost, except during rapid spikes. While at the beginning, the costs would have determined the price, I would say that now it’s the opposite, the price is almost entirely determined by demand and the production intensity adjusts and so do the marginal production costs. This is the consequence of its emergent nature as a market commodity. Nowadays the production is done by specialised devices and it is much easier to calculate one’s variable costs, so you can turn the production on/off as quickly as you want (I for example used to switch between 24/7 mining to only-night-mining, as I had dual electricity pricing).

    Whether the regression theorem applies to Bitcoin or not is a matter of interpretation. I interpret the theorem in that a potential medium of exchange must first have a price, and then sufficient demand (liquidity), prior to its function as a medium of exchange, otherwise it’s logically impossible for it to act as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin’s price emerged about 10 months after its inception, and liquidity (which I put at the emergence of the first Bitcoin exchange, i.e. what Menger called “organised market”), 3 months after that. So I would say Bitcoin adheres to the regression theorem. It just didn’t take thousands of years, merely 13 months.

  • http://blogs.forbes.com/jonmatonis/ Jon Matonis

    Excellent article, Douglas. One by one libertarians and anarcho-capitalists will come to appreciate the non-Statist nature of the digital bitcoin. You (and I) are still in the minority. Central banking won’t be toppled via the institutions — it will simply be made irrelevant.

    • maxkoda

      You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change
      something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.

      — R. Buckminster Fuller

      I agree Jon. Bitcoin is a new model that makes the existing model (Central Bank based fiat monetary system) obsolete!

  • BladeMcCool

    Great article, saw it on BusinessInsider first but came here to thank you for writing it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tomasulo Christopher Tomasulo

    So does the Regression Theorem apply to Bitcoin or not? I’ve been asking this question at various forums for over 6 months and still haven’t gotten a reasonable answer.

    • http://twitter.com/keepyourassets KeepYourAssets

      The Regression Theorem is wrong, bitcoin is a new commodity created to serve market demand for a better medium of exchange. See Bitcoin and Why Mises’ Regression Theorem is Wrong – by Anthony Freeman http://tinyurl.com/9v9xc5b

      • http://profiles.google.com/miscreanity Ramon Pla

        Not necessarily – some of the definitions the RT assumes are no longer clearly definable. Virtual items, including Bitcoin, are reshaping our ideas on what is real; their functional connection to what we consider the real world is in flux.

    • BladeMcCool

      The regression theorem with regards to bitcoin works in the following way: Once upon a time some smart coder developed a system for non-counterfeitable digital tokens using a distributed shared ledger. These tokens were not worth anything, but they had the intrinsic ability to be re-titled to new owners and allow everyone on the network to know that transfer of ownership happened. Then one day, around May 2010 someone got the bright idea of trying to buy a pizza with 10 thousand of them. He found someone willing to accept 10 thousand bitcoins in exchange for ordering him a pizza. And thus Bitcoin became money.