The Era of Uncertainty
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty
The economic crisis has placed the business cycle back in the spotlight, but as individual investors and financial professionals start the arduous task of portfolio building and rebuilding, the greatest danger they face is relying too much on the past for guidance when the future may look very different.
No one can say for certain what our economic future will look like. What investors can do is prepare. The Era of Uncertainty provides a new way of thinking about investing in a dynamic, macro-driven world, examining the importance of macroeconomic perspectives in a global economy rife with instability. This book presents a framework for using big-picture investment strategies to profit from the interwoven inflationary and deflationary scenarios likely to evolve in the coming years.
Written by FranÇois Trahan, former Chief Investment Strategist of Bear Stearns and one of the first strategists to warn about the housing bubble before it burst, and Katherine Krantz of Miracle Mile Advisors, The Era of Uncertainty addresses the likely causes and consequences of each possible scenario, offering investment strategies to profit from each potential outcome. Drawing on experiences derived from previous credit-driven deleveraging cycles and containing insights into the financial future, the book marks an important step for macroeconomics in the post-recession financial world.
A practical resource for anyone who intends to succeed in today’s environment, The Era of Uncertainty shows what it will take to make it in such a dramatically altered market, and how to incorporate macro strategies into everyday investment endeavors in order to achieve lasting success, no matter what lies ahead.
“Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation – providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
From the foreword by Robert Doll, Vice Chairman & CIO of Global Equities, Blackrock Advisors, LLC
“François Trahan is an insightful observer and student of market forces. His research has identified key drivers of stock market performance over decades in various cycles of inflation, credit growth, and economic developments. In his new book, François tries to sort out and explain for market participants the dynamics that brought us to this point and what he sees as the future path of economic and market developments. It is an essential read for anyone participating in or interested in the stock market.”
Robert Soros, Chairman, Soros Fund Management
“The Era of Uncertainty is terrific. It challenges conventional Wall Street wisdom, gives investors the necessary tools to successfully navigate the new world order and has policy prescriptions to get the U.S. economy on the right track.”
Consuelo Mack, Anchor & Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
“Valuation is not everything. An important lesson from the global financial crisis is that macro matters. In The Era of Uncertainty, François Trahan and Katharine Krantz show how macroeconomic analysis can be incorporated into the investment process and provide a road map for investing in the difficult times ahead.”
Edward Chancellor, Author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation and member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team
“François consistently sets a high bar for strategist and thought leaders in the markets, and I can safely say he’s done it yet again with this book. Always insightful, and willing to challenge the ‘stale’ thinking of the establishment on The Street, François’ thoughts and analysis are appropriate for anyone who cares not only about markets, but the future of our world.”
Jeff deGraaf, Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research, LLC